Bah, humbug and labor statistics

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Bah, humbug and labor statistics

Postby Booklady's Ghost » Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:22 pm

Spengler's new essay is up!

Excellent analysis from Spengler on why not to take the recent Burau of Labor Statistics report at face value:

And the top reason not to believe the BLS report is:

1. The level of un- and underemployment is so huge by historical standards as to make the usual sort of measurement questionable. With nearly 20% of the population unable to find proper work, there is a different sort of workforce. The vast majority of job creation in the US during the past two generations came from small businesses, which display only vaguely on the radar of government agencies as well as the bigger private surveys. The financial crisis killed small entrepreneurs as surely as Joseph Stalin killed the kulaks, and the roots of the economy are dead and dry.

(Emphasis mine)

In other words, the goose that used to lay the little golden eggs, is dead.
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Postby Colonel Sun » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:25 pm

Good investigation by Spenglerman.
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Postby Socky » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:20 pm

One problem with the notion of 'underemployed' is that it considers people who want to work as contractors to be underemployed. There is a strong movement of people my age who have no interest in full-time work whatsoever at least in major urban areas. These people are taking pay cuts, but there is work for them. It's more competitive with the full-timers competing for the same jobs, certainly, but it doesn't tell us the whole picture. The economic downturn has lead to several people I know going full contractor and avoiding full-time employment.
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Postby George Elliot » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:08 am

Socky wrote:One problem with the notion of 'underemployed' is that it considers people who want to work as contractors to be underemployed. There is a strong movement of people my age who have no interest in full-time work whatsoever at least in major urban areas. These people are taking pay cuts, but there is work for them. It's more competitive with the full-timers competing for the same jobs, certainly, but it doesn't tell us the whole picture. The economic downturn has lead to several people I know going full contractor and avoiding full-time employment.


If values like integrity and excellent quality of work are important to you, you almost have to work for yourself. Along with its other sins, what I call the Conservative Cultural Correctness Police have created unbelievably toxic workplaces.

What Spengler's otherwise excellent article omitted is that, especially in places like CA, land, house and rent prices must fall to the level which would allow honest and responsible people to work from their homes and pay their rent and other reasonable living expenses. At the present time, the only way to start a business is to recycle your relative's drug trading profits.

The necessary fall in property values would mean that Wall Streeters would loose money, since they no longer see fit to invest in enterprises which make useful products, but our economy will never, IMHO, recover until it can be rebuilt from the ground up. So long as working and middle class people are forced to keep paying outrageous private taxes to monopolistic entities, so long will economic recovery be delayed.
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Postby Emory and Oglethorpe » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:28 am

Socky wrote:One problem with the notion of 'underemployed' is that it considers people who want to work as contractors to be underemployed. There is a strong movement of people my age who have no interest in full-time work whatsoever at least in major urban areas. These people are taking pay cuts, but there is work for them. It's more competitive with the full-timers competing for the same jobs, certainly, but it doesn't tell us the whole picture. The economic downturn has lead to several people I know going full contractor and avoiding full-time employment.


There is a strong movement among people my age to stay in grad school for as long as possible so that we don't have to trade in our spacious offices for an allotment in a cramped cubicle farm, lose our lengthy vacations, and wave goodbye to frequent international travel privileges. :) Technically, we are employed, but our contracts specify 20-hour work weeks (both research and teaching assistants). It sounds like the BLS would not consider us underemployed, though. Not that our numbers are significant enough to matter in the grand scheme of things.

All kidding aside, I've heard of this movement you speak of, but I have no idea as to how large it really is and whether your perspective could be skewed because of (what I assume to be) a low home ownership rate in major cities. It's an interesting idea at least. I read an article some time back about law firms beginning to offer lower pay but also less hours for young lawyers who were more interested in having a life outside of work than becoming power-suit-clad soulless freaks.
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Postby berzerk savant » Tue Dec 08, 2009 5:33 am

Well, at least Goldman is trying to develop a picture of Main Street beyond the government figures ( which are now transparently open to manipulation ) .

Don't pay attention to the press reports any more, the media is in the tank and is not being critical . They know they are looking at bailout money , and besides don't generally know what they are talking about any way .

A few quibbles, maybe when I get home I will care enough to post them. But a good article .
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Postby Juggernaut Nihilism » Tue Dec 08, 2009 5:38 am

The real story here is the degree to which our entire government is actively propagandizing the public. Between the pronouncements of the executive branch, the soothing words of the Treasury Secretary or Fed during the height of the crisis, the juking of stats by BLS... it seems as if the entire government is in on this. It seems as if the entire point of statistics and public testimony is to keep people calm while the private interests that control our government do what they want. This goes far beyond reassuring the public in a time of crisis. I cannot see any other interpretation than that we are being actively propagandized and that they all seem to be in on it.

*EDIT* I see berserk beat me to the punch.
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Postby Socky » Tue Dec 08, 2009 5:44 am

Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:The real story here is the degree to which our entire government is actively propagandizing the public. Between the pronouncements of the executive branch, the soothing words of the Treasury Secretary or Fed during the height of the crisis, the juking of stats by BLS... it seems as if the entire government is in on this. It seems as if the entire point of statistics and public testimony is to keep people calm while the private interests that control our government do what they want. This goes far beyond reassuring the public in a time of crisis. I cannot see any other interpretation than that we are being actively propagandized and that they all seem to be in on it.

*EDIT* I see berserk beat me to the punch.


But we heard precisely the same complaints when things were good. When they were good people were trying to tell us it was bad, and that the government was just 'juking' the stats. They were probably right then as Fr. Goldman has a point now. The only real difference is the numbers. The technique is the same.
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Postby Juggernaut Nihilism » Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:56 am

Socky wrote:
Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:The real story here is the degree to which our entire government is actively propagandizing the public. Between the pronouncements of the executive branch, the soothing words of the Treasury Secretary or Fed during the height of the crisis, the juking of stats by BLS... it seems as if the entire government is in on this. It seems as if the entire point of statistics and public testimony is to keep people calm while the private interests that control our government do what they want. This goes far beyond reassuring the public in a time of crisis. I cannot see any other interpretation than that we are being actively propagandized and that they all seem to be in on it.

*EDIT* I see berserk beat me to the punch.


But we heard precisely the same complaints when things were good. When they were good people were trying to tell us it was bad, and that the government was just 'juking' the stats. They were probably right then as Fr. Goldman has a point now. The only real difference is the numbers. The technique is the same.


I am not saying this is a new development, or blaming the current people in charge. It's just that the plain and obvious discrepancies right now make the game particularly visible to anyone who wants to take the time to look (and knows how). The really odd thing to me is that there doesn't seem to be a single independent voice in government. It is as if every agencies meets and discusses the disinformation agenda, and then actively goes out to propagate it.
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The REAL "Hockey Stick" Graph

Postby Romeo » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:27 am

Image

The chart starts near where the Repubs take over Congress in 1995.

Unemployment drops until the first bend -- at a point where the Democrats re-capture the Senate in 2001.

Up, up, up, until the Repubs retake the Senate in 2003.

Down, down down again until the Dems then take BOTH houses of Congress in 2007.

It's almost a perfect match to the fiscal year budgets that become effective each year on Oct. 1st.

Who hasn't noticed (obviously the MSM.com would never note this obvious connection) that the stock market peaked at 14,164 on Oct. 9, 2007, exactly 8 days after the first Pelosi-Reid budget, which ballooned the deficit, took effect.
Last edited by Romeo on Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Socky » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:28 am

Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:I am not saying this is a new development, or blaming the current people in charge.


I wasn't saying you were.

It's just that the plain and obvious discrepancies right now make the game particularly visible to anyone who wants to take the time to look (and knows how).[/quote]

I don't know how to tell the data. As I said above, I am not sure if it see a distinction between 'underemployed' and 'professional contractor'.

The really odd thing to me is that there doesn't seem to be a single independent voice in government. It is as if every agencies meets and discusses the disinformation agenda, and then actively goes out to propagate it.


Well then, this is the single most competent administration in history. If it has that sort of magical powers as keeping things hidden and in sync, then we should have nothing to worry about.
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Postby Romeo » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:44 am

Socky wrote:
Juggernaut Nihilism wrote:I am not saying this is a new development, or blaming the current people in charge.


I wasn't saying you were.

It's just that the plain and obvious discrepancies right now make the game particularly visible to anyone who wants to take the time to look (and knows how).


I don't know how to tell the data. As I said above, I am not sure if it see a distinction between 'underemployed' and 'professional contractor'.

The really odd thing to me is that there doesn't seem to be a single independent voice in government. It is as if every agencies meets and discusses the disinformation agenda, and then actively goes out to propagate it.


Well then, this is the single most competent administration in history. If it has that sort of magical powers as keeping things hidden and in sync, then we should have nothing to worry about.


The marriage between the federal government and the MSM has been consumated. Reporters who just promised to "give blowjobs to Democrats" in years past (Nina Burleigh only said openly what nearly all the MSMers were thinking) have now moved into a full sexual union with the far left of the Democratic Party. The funny thing, though, is that it's the MSM.com that controls the Party -- and so is "the pitcher" in this relationship -- not the other way around.
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Postby Socky » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:58 am

The MSM is dead, long live the MSM!
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Postby Romeo » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:20 am

Socky wrote:The MSM is dead, long live the MSM!


The MSM, like any parasite, always seeks a new host.

The MSM has killed the great newspapers. It's now killing the great TV news networks. But already we can see the future: Taxpayer subsidies for the zombie media forms like newspapers and magazines, and the MSM is already transitioning to the internet. Sure, sites like Politico and DailyBeast are doomed, but by then they'll be getting taxpayer subsidies, too.
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Postby Romeo » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:20 am

Socky wrote:The MSM is dead, long live the MSM!


The MSM, like any parasite, always seeks a new host.

The MSM has killed the great newspapers. It's now killing the great TV news networks. But already we can see the future: Taxpayer subsidies for the zombie media forms like newspapers and magazines, and the MSM is already transitioning to the internet. Sure, sites like Politico and DailyBeast are doomed, but by then they'll be getting taxpayer subsidies, too.

Edit: Btw, Socky, no comment on "The REAL 'Hockey Stick' Graph" I posted above? :)
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Postby Socky » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:39 am

Nah, the graph didn't really interest me. But as I know something about how media works, I have to say your view on it is appalling. It's actually internal business stuff that kills the media, and the MSM is irrelevant. I can't wait til the MSM is completely and totally destroyed. Good riddance. But it's not some kind of conspiracy. It's gradgrind excutives who are more MBA than media. They just don't know how to invest in their own field. I mean come on, NBC couldn't sell the story of King David in America. You know something's wrong there. The highest rated show of the fall, V had its showrunner fired before it even aired to record ratings. The 'media' isn't a bunch of conspiratorialists it's a bunch of idiots and crazy people. That's why I always your rants about the MSM to be hysterical.
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Postby Milo » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:13 am

"Goods-producing industries lost 69,000 jobs by the BLS count, about equally divided between manufacturing and construction - yet the "recovery" supposedly is led by manufacturing. "

If this is what his research department produced no wonder it was kiboshed.
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Re: Bah, humbug and labor statistics

Postby HAL9000 » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:19 pm

Booklady's Ghost wrote:Spengler's new essay is up!

Excellent analysis from Spengler on why not to take the recent Burau of Labor Statistics report at face value:

And the top reason not to believe the BLS report is:

1. The level of un- and underemployment is so huge by historical standards as to make the usual sort of measurement questionable. With nearly 20% of the population unable to find proper work, there is a different sort of workforce. The vast majority of job creation in the US during the past two generations came from small businesses, which display only vaguely on the radar of government agencies as well as the bigger private surveys. The financial crisis killed small entrepreneurs as surely as Joseph Stalin killed the kulaks, and the roots of the economy are dead and dry.

(Emphasis mine)

In other words, the goose that used to lay the little golden eggs, is dead.


What if the government massively starts a direct loan program for small businesses, as if it were a bank? The current stimulus program does have such a component, but it is only symbolic. These loans to small businesses would be great incubators for future technology. In fact, even if a small American corporation goes bankrupt after borrowing a large sum from the US government, this money would still be taxable gains for OTHER companies, provided that all the spending and expenses conducted by that original corporation were inside the United States.

This kind of government intervention would be the opposite of killing the kulaks.
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Re: Bah, humbug and labor statistics

Postby Romeo » Wed Dec 09, 2009 12:24 am

HAL9000 wrote:
Booklady's Ghost wrote:Spengler's new essay is up!

Excellent analysis from Spengler on why not to take the recent Burau of Labor Statistics report at face value:

And the top reason not to believe the BLS report is:

1. The level of un- and underemployment is so huge by historical standards as to make the usual sort of measurement questionable. With nearly 20% of the population unable to find proper work, there is a different sort of workforce. The vast majority of job creation in the US during the past two generations came from small businesses, which display only vaguely on the radar of government agencies as well as the bigger private surveys. The financial crisis killed small entrepreneurs as surely as Joseph Stalin killed the kulaks, and the roots of the economy are dead and dry.

(Emphasis mine)

In other words, the goose that used to lay the little golden eggs, is dead.


What if the government massively starts a direct loan program for small businesses, as if it were a bank? The current stimulus program does have such a component, but it is only symbolic. These loans to small businesses would be great incubators for future technology. In fact, even if a small American corporation goes bankrupt after borrowing a large sum from the US government, this money would still be taxable gains for OTHER companies, provided that all the spending and expenses conducted by that original corporation were inside the United States.

This kind of government intervention would be the opposite of killing the kulaks.


Hal, you're smarter than this.

We just had a crash due to loans that were more "politically correct" than "economically correct". And you want to do that again? Have taxpayers make loans to businessmen whose creditworthiness is too low for private credit? Gee, nothing could go wrong there!
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Postby S-Quirkygod » Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:53 am

Socky wrote:Nah, the graph didn't really interest me. But as I know something about how media works, I have to say your view on it is appalling. It's actually internal business stuff that kills the media, and the MSM is irrelevant. I can't wait til the MSM is completely and totally destroyed. Good riddance. But it's not some kind of conspiracy. It's gradgrind excutives who are more MBA than media. They just don't know how to invest in their own field. I mean come on, NBC couldn't sell the story of King David in America. You know something's wrong there. The highest rated show of the fall, V had its showrunner fired before it even aired to record ratings. The 'media' isn't a bunch of conspiratorialists it's a bunch of idiots and crazy people. That's why I always your rants about the MSM to be hysterical.

MSM

Main Stream Media? Nah. Given your other posts it must mean "Men Seeking Men".
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