LDP won in Japan but Japnese troubles are only beginning

[Liang]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/1 ... 10527.html

Abe, who would be Japan's seventh prime minister in 6 1/2 years, will likely push for increased public works spending and lobby for stronger moves by the central bank to break Japan out of its deflationary trap.

Stock prices soared Monday morning to their highest level in more than eight months, reflecting hopes in the business world that the LDP will be more effective in its economic policies than the Democrats were.

Obviously, the Japnese are expecting Abe to perform miracles to raise Japnese economy out of its collapse. But it is easier said than done to inflate a dead economy. If Abe tried to inject money to increase Japnese economy then the only he will do is increase inflation. In the end, it is like I keep saying, economic growth depends on increased productivity which in turn depends on technological advancement. Since Japan's technologies are not advancing rapidly there can be no rapid increase in productivity. Therefore, the Japnese is a zero sum equation which means any increase in money supply will inevitably leads to inflation which will cause serious harm to most of the Japnese people.

What is even more catastrophic to the Japnese economy is that it is overly dependent on exports. But as the technologies of other rising economies such as China increases its high tech exports it will decrease Japan's global market share. This will then make it even harder for Japan to export enough to pay for all the imported raw materials and energy. Therefore, in order to compete globally Japan must reduce the prices of its exported products which in turn will make it necessary for the Japnese wages to be lowered while Japnese corporations will make less profits. The cycle will spiral downward to make Japan overall much poorer. Already, Japnese per capita GDP in real purchasing power terms is less than that of Taiwan:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan
Japan:
GDP (PPP) 2011 estimate
- Per capita $34,748

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan
Taiwan:
GDP (PPP) 2012 estimate
- Per capita $38,486

Therefore, even though Japan has a higher nominal per capita GDP its purchasing power per capita GDP is actually significantly less than that of Taiwan. This means Taiwan people have a higher standard of living than the Japnese. And as Japan's exports declined the Japnese people's standard of living will continue to slide lower until their real purchasing power is among the poorest in the world. The decreasing purchasing power also means Japan cannot deploy a very powerful military. As the purchasing power of the yen decreases they must pay more for anything made in Japan. That is, the wages of the Japnese soldiers will increase. The cost of building submarines and destroyers made in Japan will rise much higher. And as taxes rise the Japnese people will have even less money to pay for what they need. And so the downward spiral will be exacerbated by the increased militarization.

Japan's public debt is already the highest in the world at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... ublic_debt

% of GDP (CIS/Eurostat : IMF)
Japan (208.2 : 229.77)
China (43.5 : 25.84)
US (105.5 : 102.94)
Italy (120.9 : 120.11)
Greece (165.3 2011 : 160.81)

Therefore, given such a hugh public debt, it is just simply impossible for Japnese government to stimulate its economy. Given such a sick economy, the obvious thing for the government to do is to instill stability so that the status quo is maintained or that taxes is raised on the wealthy and reduced on the poorest so that all can have a minimally dignified life. Increasing public spending will only raise the debt, causes inflation and lead to further miseries for the people and decline and contraction of the economy.

Therefore, there is nothing that Abe can do either to increase exports or to stimulate the domestic economy. And if he expanded the Japnese military in such an economic environment he will only hasten the collapse of the Japnese economy and ultimately weaken the Japnese military even more.

So what should China do in this larger picture? China must first reduce exports and concentrate on developing the domestic economy through the indigenous advancement of technologies, the urbanization of the rural residents or farmers and the energy self-sufficiency. As China's exports is systematically reduced, China must expand its domestic productivity. In this environment it is stimulative to expand the military to provide jobs which will inturn stimulate the domestic economy by creating demand. And since China has all the essential mineral resources it does not need to import much of anything. China can also become energy self-sufficient through its abundant coal, hydro, wind, solar, nculear, etc. resources. And the expansion of these domestic energy resources will further expand jobs and create demand leading to more jobs and demands. And so Chinese economy will spiral upward even as the Japnese economy spiral downward.

And not the least as China's exports shifts from low tech low labor cost products to high tech high labor cost products, it will on the one hand expand Chinese economy and enrich the Chinese laborers and on the other hand eat into Japan's global market share and reduce Japan's overall economy.

Therefore, given this larger picture, China should not be compromising in territorial problems. China must demand assertively that Japan respect China's sovereignty and return all Chinese sovereignty forthwith. If Japan did not comply with China's righteous demands then China must implement a forceful policy of confronting Japan on all fronts from the economic sector to diplomatic sector to military sector. In the end, Japan will only wither and die while China rises to its historical position as the richest and the most powerful nation in the world to bring peace, justice and prosperity to all except its enemies.

[Liang]

http://bbs.miercn.com/201212/thread_144547_1_2.html

同时，他似乎准备否认此前日本帝国二战时期所犯罪行的道歉，甚至打算参拜被认为是日本军国主义象征的靖国神社。而这并不是东京和北京关系缓和的好兆头。

Translation:
At the same time, he (Abe) seems to be prepared to rescind the apologies offered by the Japnese for the crimes committed by the Japnese Imperial Government during the WW2. He is even prepared to attend ceremonies at the symbol of the Japnese Imperialism, the Yasukuni Jinja. This is not a good omen for the amelioration of relationship between Tokyo and Beijing.

中国似乎已不对安倍等日本政客寄予希望，也丢掉了对日本民意、西方舆论、美国政要的幻想。

Translation:
China no longer seems to have any hope in Abe and other Japnese politicians. It has also discarded the delusion about the public opinions of Japan and the West and the American political leaders.

　　笔者认为，在中日问题上，中国正式结束韬光养晦期，进入有所作为时。衰败中的日本还不务正业，走上中日冷战，军备竞赛之路，只会加速其败落。

Translation:
The writer believes, in the matter of Sino-Japnese relationship China has officially finished the era of hide the light and feed the dimness and entered the era of active accomplishments. Japan will only accelerate its decline as it does not act appropriately but has embarked on the road to the Sino-Japnese cold war and arms race.

The Japnese have obviously lost their minds. They are acting like the return to the militaristic imperialism will solve their current problems like it had solved their problems in the past 2 centuries. But things are never the same. Since the beginning of 1800's China had been in the most serious decline of its long history. By the late 1800's and the early 1900's China was totally unable to resist the aggression of the Japnese. But since then China has undergone a significant recovery. China is no longer totally without technologies. In many respects, Chinese technologies are now even more advanced than Japnese technologies. Chinese supercomputers are just as fast if not faster than Japnese supercomputers. Chinese deep diving submersible can dive deeper than Japnese submersible thus proving the advanced material science and marine engineering. Chinese space science is also proven to be highly capable with a string of successes in the deployment of the space lab and space walks and maneuvers and linkages. China's space plane, laser gun, rail gun, etc. are more or less on a par with America and more advanced than Japan. The list just goes on and on.

At the same time, Japnese economy is being kept afloat by the Chinese domestic market. Millions of Japnese cars are being sold in China every year. It is not too much to say that without the Chinese domestic market Toyota and many other Japnese car companies will go bankrupt overnight. It is obvious to anybody with a minimal degree of economic sense that Chinese domestic economy can benefit from a cessation of Japnese businesses while Japnese economy will collapse without the Chinese domestic market. Therefore, to destroy Japan, China simply needs to shut down all Japnese businesses in China. And in a few years the Japnese economy will collapse and cannot support any kind of arms race with China. The economies of the West simply cannot support a significant expansion of Japnese exports. And the developing countries simply cannot develop fast enough and get rich enough to be able to afford significantly more Japnese products.

On the other hand, Chinese economy can develop sustainably even if totally isolated. Chinese exporters might lose but the Chinese people as a whole will get richer as the Chinese domestic economy expands rapidly. Therefore, with the Chinese economy expanding and Japnese economy collapsing the long term outcome of an arms race is obvious even before it starts.

But the Japnese are irrationally fixing their minds on the history of the past 200 years. They still think their gods will come to their rescue and allow Japan to grow big and powerful by colonizing China yet again. But the character of the Chinese government has fundamentally changed. China is no longer ruled by a corrupt Manchurian imperial government that never cared for the welfare of the Han people and was never enthusiastically supported by them. Now, China is ruled by a predominantly Han government which is increasingly responsive to the will of the Chinese people. Put in another way, the CCP can no longer sell out China as the Qing government did. The Japnese aggressive behaviors over the last 2 years have not only offended the Chinese people but have alarmed the Chinese government as well as stimulated the Chinese military. The Chinese military had languished under the "hide the light" weak policy of Deng. But by 2010 it had become increasing clear that hide the light policy has not produced the peace that the Dengists had hoped for. And now under pressure from the patriotic Chinese, the new Chinese government has no choice but to prepare for war.

I hope the Chinese people will stay courageous and smart and understand the weakness of Japan which has increasingly become nothing more than an empty shell inflated by the past glory. But once China stops feeding Japan by kicking out all the Japnese businesses in China then Japan will simply collapse. And even a small Chinese military victory will dispel the invincible illusion of the Japnese army. And China will then rise even faster being free of the Japnese parasite finally.

Many thought war between China and Japan is not possible. But I had warned since August of this year that war between China and Japan is no longer impossible. Japan obviously is prepared to shoot down Chinese planes over Diaoyu Island from their aggressive response of scrambling 8 F-15 to intercept a single Chinese unarmed plane. China will come prepared next time. And then war will break out that will end with the surrender of Japan yet once again. And this time without America, China will get justice.

[ari]

Mr Shinzo Abe, like Barrack Obama thinks they can grow their way out of their peak recession. They believe that by avoiding austerity drives they can turn their economies around, albeit with a judicious mix of stimulus and printing of money (depreciating their currencies). Of course the Amerikans believe they are in a stronger position to achieve this because of the size of their domestic market and the fact that the USD is a global currency of trade, and that they can therefore reduce their debts through such crass currency manipulation.

The trouble with this economic "strategy" - if you can call it that - is that you need to sell more in order to grow your way out of the doldrums. Either sell more of the manufactured goods and services, or sell your productive assets and service companies. And herein lies the crux of the problem, the catch-22 situation : How can you sell more when government has no money to pump prime the economy and is herself in grave danger of becoming bankrupt? Economies need external stimulus. If the government of the day is too broke to do that, then the logical answer must be to look outside the country. Is there a market who can buy our goods and services?

Since the EU - the only other large wealthy market is also broke and near to bankrupt, that leaves only China, the one remaining growing sizable economy. Unfortunately again, here lies another self created problem by Washington and Tokyo : China is considered a geopolitical enemy and and an inferior and must and is being, regrettably, treated as such. Thus, the conundrum faced by Washington and Tokyo : How do you hope or expect to get a self created enemy to whom you have been so cold and hostile towards, to help you, to do you a favor, to be nice back to you? Can your ego accept dealing equally with someone you regard as an inferior and with whom you now have such ill and animositic relationship?

Nevertheless, Washington and Tokyo has two options : Either eat humble pie and cease their threatening and bullying and slanderous activities against China, or go to war and attempt to colonize China.

Unfortunately, it would be a downright foolish and extremely hazardous thing for Mr Shinzo Abe and Mr Barrack Obama to start a war with Mr Xi and China. For that would certainly ignite into a world war 3. You can start a war with china but how are you going to end it, and how will it end? The world's interdependent economies will be plunged into chaos and recession with even longer breadlines. And the war will be brought to Japanese and Amerikan soil in this age of missiles. No, Mr Barrack Obama, and Mr Shinzo Abe too, have to eat humble pie and stand down from their aggressive, hostile, unfriendly and threatening stance against China. There is no way on earth China will be a walk-over for the US and Japan. On the contrary, it might be the other way round. Washington might just see Chinese troops in the Diet.

Mr Xi and his team has the leverage. Amerika and Japan needs the Chinese market to grow their economy out of their recessions. There is no other way out, more or less. Either China helps them or they can go down the austerity path and deflate their economies and reduce their GDP therefore. I strongly suggest Mr Xi shows a strong firm and realistic hand. There is no such thing as permanent friends or enemies in politics. Just do what you think is the right thing to do in the interest of China and the Chinese people, and do it with courage and fortitude. Don't believe all Amerikan and Japanese BS. People like them even when they are down, will continue to spout all manner of BS if they think you are foolish, weak, and timid. And when things turn around for them, they will snarl and bite you and plan once more to destroy you.

Maybe you should deny them - the Japanese and Amerikan companies - your market. But if you do otherwise however, wring the maximum out of them. And you can tell them that they are not the enemies of the Chinese but their government in Washington and Tokyo are. And if they can't do anything about their government's hostile attitude against the Chinese, then they unfortunately too becomes the enemy and have to treated as such. Not buying from Japan and Amerika is the Chinese's privilege and choice.

[Liang]

Ari wrote:
Either China helps them or they can go down the austerity path and deflate their economies and reduce their GDP therefore. I strongly suggest Mr Xi shows a strong firm and realistic hand. There is no such thing as permanent friends or enemies in politics. Just do what you think is the right thing to do in the interest of China and the Chinese people, and do it with courage and fortitude.

How is China going to help Japan and America? By allowing them to make and sell goods and services in China to Chinese consumers? Why should Chinese people be so generous when they are among the poorest in the world? I say kick out all the American and Japnese blood sucking businesses in China and let all the profits go to the Chinese people. If the Chinese keep feeding the Japnese and the Americans then they will only grow strong and invade China. The only way China can be safe is by making itself rich and strong and be able to deploy a military many times stronger than its two age-old enemies combined.

There is no honor and glory in China being able to "help" its two historical enemies. There is only foolishness and danger for China to help these two enemies who have caused catastrophic sufferings to China for hundreds of years. China can easily be safe and can only be safe if it acts courageously and honorably and relies on itself to become rich and powerful and kick its two enemies aside out of the way of its resurgence to its former glory.

Unfortunately, too many Chinese are instinctively terrified of America and Japan and think the safest way for China lies in being able to be of critical services to these two imperialist thugs. Come on, Chinese people! Be more self-confident and trust in yourself and have some sense of honor and be willing to make a little sacrifice so that you can stand tall and proud as your ancestors for thousands of years!

[tzuooching]

liang and ari,

WHY IS JAPAN GOING FOR BROKE?

…BECAUSE IT’S READY TO REASUME THE UNFINISHED BUSINESS OF WWII. SO, IS CHINA AND ASIA.

[neverfail]

Renewed LDP government for Japan = more "hair of the dog that bit you".

(To quote a popular expression describing an alcoholic who wakes up with a hangover and promptly takes a swig from the wiskey bottle in an attempt to feel better).